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Understanding Recommendations

An explanation of our recommendations and of the ratings we use on shares.Our recommendations are never made in isolation but in the context of a diversified portfolio. A cornerstone of our investment philosophy is that the most prudent and effective way of investing is to hold a diversified portfolio of assets, both across and within asset classes.Stock recommendations - Portfolio viewWe have a two-tier recommendation structure:1) We firstly classify stocks under one of our three portfolio classification ratings: Core, Supplementary and Niche. These classifications are based primarily on risk. Stocks that we believe are more defensive, less volatile and lower-risk are classified as Core; the next tier is rated Supplementary; while the higher-risk stocks are classified as Niche.The terms relate to our view on the role each stock should play in a portfolio and signal how much of a portfolio should be invested in a particular stock. Stocks rated ‘Core’ should be core holdings in a portfolio while stocks rated Niche should represent a much smaller proportion. In general terms, we recommend around 70% of a portfolio be invested in stocks rated Core, with Supplementary-rated stocks representing 20% to 30% and Niche no more than 10% of a portfolio.2) We provide a portfolio view rating on each stock. We have three valuation based portfolio view ratings: Overweight, Neutral and Underweight.These portfolio view ratings reflect our current view of the attractiveness of the current share price of each stock. To determine these ratings, we take into account our analyst’s valuation as well as broader factors, such as the outlook for the stock’s sector and its possible performance relative to the broader market.Stocks rated Overweight are those that we believe offer good relative value and should perform better than the market average over the coming year. Stocks rated Neutral are those we believe will perform in line with the broader market, while those rated Underweight are, in our view, expensive and/or likely to lag the market average over the coming 12 months.Other issuesAnalyst ratings (Buy, Hold, Sell) – We have a team of analysts, each of whom research individual stocks. We draw on this research and it forms the basis of our ratings. We do not use their Buy, Hold, Sell ratings directly in our portfolio ratings because their recommendations are stock specific, have no portfolio context and they are written primarily for institutional investors, not private investors. As such, they are, at times, unsuitable for private investors.Price targets – Price targets are calculated by our analysts and are based on their discounted cash flow valuation model, along with any adjustments made to account for any other material issues. We believe it is important not to rely only on price targets as there are many other issues that need to be taken into consideration when selecting stocks for a long-term portfolio. Price targets are just one of the inputs we use to arrive at our portfolio views.


Proud supporter of Kea, Craigs Investment Partners Limited is one of New Zealand’s largest investment advisory and management firms. With over 50,000 clients nationwide, we offer bespoke investment solutions to private, corporate and institutional clients. Established over 30 years ago, our experienced team provide professional investment advice for private investors, along with a broad range of portfolio management, broking services and saving solutions. The Deutsche Bank Group holds a 49.9% equity interest in Craigs Investment Partners. This strategic alliance offers a broader range of financial products and services, global research and significant investment opportunities. 

Market Insights

We have one of the largest private wealth research teams in New Zealand. We monitor major economic trends and keep a close watch on social and political events which can affect both domestic and international financial markets. Our analysts cover all the major sectors and publish timely, in-depth reports on a range of companies. We believe that fact-based research plays a crucial role in any investment decision, therefore we take a disciplined and rigorous approach to research in order to help build your investment strategy. Our focus is to help our advisers make better investment recommendations, and ultimately for our clients to make more informed investment decisions. Learn more>>>

Investing in NZ

Our private wealth services are designed to meet your individual investment needs. Whether you are just starting your investment plan or are already financially independent, together we can help you achieve what you want from your investments. Learn more>>>

Returning to NZ

We can help you move your international superannuation. UK Pension Transfers: Our complimentary UK Pension Transfer Information Service helps you understand your United Kingdom Pension scheme and the options available. Learn more>> Australian Super Transfers: Regulations for trans-Tasman Retirement Savings Portability are now in effect, enabling you to transfer retirement savings between Australia and New Zealand. Learn more>> Multi currency accounts: We operate GBP, USD, AUD, EUR and NZD accounts, allowing you to invest in the currencies of your choosing. Learn more>>  

Shares continue to rise

Shares continue to rise as interest rates remain very low   The last six months* have been strong for most equity markets around the world. With the exception of emerging markets, all of the major indices have risen. New Zealand and Australian shares were up 11% and 13% respectively during the period. The NZ dollar has fallen against the resurgent US dollar, but hit fresh highs against other currencies. With inflation very low, New Zealand interest rates are unlikely to change for some time. Low interest rates across the world could keep share markets well-supported, even though valuations have increased lately. Investment opportunities still exist, but we believe a more selective approach is required. Global equities continued to rise, led by Europe and Japan.  The US share market was up 4.8% during the period, having been one of the weaker regions along with the UK market, which has risen 2.3%. Australian shares performed very strongly with a 13% rise, while European shares had an even stronger period, rising 16.7%. Japan tops the list with an 18.8% return for the six month period. New Zealand shares have not been far behind. The NZX50 index has gained 11% in the last six months and New Zealand listed property has been stronger again with a 15.4% rise. Migration is strong, the construction sector is in good shape and unemployment is falling steadily. With an average dividend yield of 5.7%, New Zealand shares remain attractive as a source of income for many investors. The NZ dollar has been strong against most other currencies. This has been most notable against the euro and the Australian dollar, against which the currency has risen 13% and 10% respectively (to record highs in recent weeks). This strength has also extended to the British pound, where the currency is up 5%. Conversely, the NZ dollar has fallen another 4% against the US dollar as the US economy continues to perform well. Interest rates look set to remain low for the foreseeable future. Locally, we have seen the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.5%. The RBNZ has been very clear to signal that interest rate hikes are off the table for the next couple of years. One reason for this change in stance has been lower than expected inflation. The annual inflation rate has slipped to 0.8%, below the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range for the first time since the second quarter of June 2013, when it fell to 0.7%. Markets are starting to look expensive, but they could stay that way for some time. Share market valuations have surged over recent months as markets have performed very strongly, and shares in all major regions are now trading above historic averages. However, record low interest rates are distorting traditional valuation measures and markets are more focussed on relative valuations. In other words, shares could remain (or get more) expensive for as long as interest rates stay at close to zero in many places, and while central banks (such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) continue to print money. For investors, there are still opportunities in many regions, although we recommend a cautious approach. We suggest buying in instalments to reduce the impact of a potential pullback at some point. We think European shares can still perform well as the Central Bank provides economic stimulus, and as the weaker euro provides support to exporters in the region. US shares have had a strong run and are starting to look expensive, although for New Zealand investors there is likely to be a continuing currency tailwind as the NZ dollar declines against its US counterpart. The UK market has been a poor performer and the British pound has been very weak. Therefore there is an opportunity to add to UK holdings at these levels, as we could see some of this uncertainty reverse in the wake of their election in May. * to 31 March 2015

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Craigs KiwiSaver Product Disclosure Statement Investment Options Other Material Information Financial Statements (as at 31 March 2017) Annual Report 2017 Annual Report 2016 Annual Report 2015 Forms Australian Superannuation Transfer Information Request form Transfer to a complying Australian Superannuation Scheme Investment Direction & Switching Form Withdrawal request - Age of entitlement Withdrawal Request - Deceased member Withdrawal Request - First home purchase Withdrawal Request - Deposit for first home purchase Withdrawal Request - Income tax and student loan Withdrawal Request - Permanent emigration Withdrawal Request - Serious illness Withdrawal Request - Significant financial hardship Withdrawal Request - Court order Authority to deduct from wages Direct Debit Form NZD Bank Account AUD Bank Account GBP Bank Account USD Bank Account Preferred Provider Agreement Identity Verification Requirements   Craigs Superannuation Product Disclosure Statement Investment Options Other Material Information  Financial Statements (as at 31 March 2017) Annual Report 2017 Forms Investment Direction & Switching Form UK Superannuation Transfer Information Request Form superSTART  Investment Options Financial Statements (as at 31 March 2017) Annual Report 2017 Annual Report 2016 Annual Report 2015

Risk Profiler

Investing requires a balance between risk and return. The key is determining what level of Investment risk you feel comfortable with. Our Investment Risk Profiler is designed to give you an indication of your risk profile and the type of investments that might be appropriate for you. Important Note This investment risk profiler is a tool that may assist you in determining your tolerance to risk. It should not be used as a substitute for a detailed investment plan because it does not take into account your individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. These should all be considered before making an investment decision.

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Risk Profiles

When considering how to manage risk we often look at the split between income assets and growth assets and within this split the specific asset class allocations. The specific asset class allocations are the portion of a portfolio which is invested into income assets (such as cash, New Zealand and International fixed interest securities) and growth assets (such as New Zealand and Australian equities). When we invest it is important to consider our goals and our risk profile. We usually work through a risk questionnaire that places us into one of five risk profiles. This risk profiling process is important as it should help match our investment objectives to our risk appetite. Each of these risk profiles is mapped to an income and growth asset split. For example, we suggest that someone with a Balanced Risk profile have a portfolio that has a split of 40% income assets and 60% growth assets. We call this split of assets the target asset allocation.   Once we have invested our money the value of our actual holdings will change over time as each asset class can and may move at a different rate. These variations can move our portfolios away from our target asset allocation and if left unchecked our portfolio may assume greater or lesser risk than we would like. This in turn may result in our portfolios becoming more volatile, incurring unexpected losses, or underachieving against our investment objectives. We are currently going through a period of strong returns; growth assets (e.g. shares) have achieved high returns relative to income assets. If we model a 3% p.a. return on income assets and a 12% p.a. return on growth assets over a three year period, a Balanced Investor profile will have moved to a 34:66 split between income and growth assets. It is important that we regularly review and compare our holdings against our target asset allocation, as well as our appetite for risk as our circumstances can change over time. Regular rebalancing keeps our portfolio on an even keel. Our Private Wealth Research team produce a series of target asset allocations to suit a range of risk profiles. Details of these asset allocations are provided in our News & Views publication which is available in the Client portal area of this website. There are many more risks to be aware of. For more information on these refer to the Investment Statements for your service. Talk to your Investment Adviser if you would like to discuss what you currently hold and the best approach for you.   

A reminder on risk

Investing involves taking some risk. There is a chance with any investment of an uncertain outcome, where the actual return is different to what was expected. Markets have recovered from the global financial crisis, performing strongly since March 2009. After a period of strong returns, like those we have seen since 2009, our memories of what risk looks and feels like can fade. So we think it is timely to provide a brief reminder of risk – what it is, and how to manage it. We recommend you look at your portfolio to ensure you are not taking unnecessary risks. Talk to your Investment Adviser about the best approach for you. The many faces of risk Risk is by definition the unforeseeable. If we could predict something was going to happen it wouldn’t be unexpected and we could take action to avoid it or to reduce its impact. Your returns will ultimately depend on the investment performance of the securities you hold. These securities are exposed directly and indirectly to a variety of risks. Investment risks that could affect your returns include: Market risk - changes in market conditions may affect the value of investments, for example political events, natural disasters, legislative changes and economic events; Specific investment risk – an individual investment may face an unforeseen adverse event, which affects the value of the underlying business and in turn, reduces the value of the investment; Currency risk - currency movements can have an effect on the value of any foreign investments. When a foreign investment is left unhedged, the NZ dollar value of that foreign investment will decline if the NZ dollar rises against the currency in which the foreign investment is held; Interest rate risk – changes in market interest rates can have a negative impact, directly or indirectly, on the value of all types of share and fixed income investments (including property based investments); Counterparty risk – a third party may default on their obligations resulting in a loss of value in an investment; Concentration risk – portfolios which have a small number of holdings or which invest in a single asset class can be affected by a single event, having impact on one security or asset class; Liquidity risk – if an investment is not widely traded (i.e. is illiquid) then an investor may not be able to sell the investment or may only be able to sell at a discounted price. There are many more risks to be aware of. For more information on these refer to the Investment Statements for your service. How to manage risk One key strategy which we believe is the single most effective method of mitigating risk is diversification. Diversification means investing in a range of investments, from a range of asset classes and in range of industries, economies and companies. Risk can come from anywhere and affect any market or investment. Having a prudently diversified portfolio helps insure a portfolio against uncertainty. Diversify your portfolio by holding a range of fixed income securities, companies and/or funds in a portfolio, and by having a mix of lower-risk income assets (cash and fixed income) and higher-risk growth assets (property and shares) in a combination that suits your goals and risk profile. Invest for the long-term rather than attempt to time the market. If possible, invest in regular instalments, which is a great way of reducing market timing risk. Also regularly check your progress against your objectives and stick to your strategy. Don’t ignore risk. It may seem to be hibernating at present, but it has a habit of giving us sharp wake-up calls when we least expect it. More information about diversification and how to manage risk is available in our book ‘Investing Between the Flags’. Talk to your Investment Adviser if you would like to discuss what you currently hold and the best approach for you.   


Queenstown…South…+64 3 901 0170 / 0800 835 600…+64 3 901 0179…queenstown@craigsip.com…Level 1, Five Mile Centre Grant Road, Frankton Queenstown 9349 …PO Box 2487 Wakatipu Queenstown 9349

Andrew Marshall

Andrew Marshall joined Craigs Investment Partners as an Investment Adviser in 2000. Previously he worked for Barclays Bank in London and as a business analyst for the National Bank. He is also a Barrister and Solicitor for the High Court of New Zealand. Andrew is married with a young family and is a keen golfer who has played off a four handicap and was a volunteer at the 2004 US Open Championship. He also enjoys skiing, rugby, cricket and tennis. Andrew holds the following qualifications: Certificate of Authorisation AFA (2011) FINRA Series 65 Uniform Investment Adviser Law Examination – USA (2011) Statement of Attainment ASIC RG 146 Compliance Course – Australia (2011) Bachelor of Laws, Canterbury University (1996) Professionals in Law, NZ Law Society (1996) Bachelor of Commerce (Business Administration & Finance), Canterbury University (1995) He is a member of or accredited with the following organisations: NZX Adviser Registered Investment Adviser Representative (United States of America) …Andrew Marshall…Queenstown Branch…Adviser…03-901-0176…andrew.marshall@craigsip.com

Clare Phillips

Clare Phillips joined Craigs Investment Partners in July 2016. Originally from Hereford in England, Clare Phillips has worked in the financial services industry for over 20 years. Previous employers include Westpac New Zealand and Lloyds Bank PLC in UK. Clare moved from Hereford to Queenstown in 2007. Clare is married to Steve and they have two young children. She loves the Queenstown area and feels very fortunate to call Queenstown home. In her spare time she enjoys jet boating, 4 wheel drive off road trips and tramping. She also enjoys spending time with her family and friends. Clare is committed to working in partnership with her clients to help them create and grow their wealth. She believes that where a client’s financial future is concerned, preparation is everything. She loves seeing her clients achieve their aspirations and financial goals. Clare holds the following qualifications:  Certificate of Authorisation AFA (2011) …Clare Phillips…Queenstown Branch…Investment Adviser…03-901-0171…clare.phillips@craigsip.com

Paul Gardner

Paul Gardner joined Craigs Investment Partners in 2016, and has over 25 years experience in the finance industry. Prior to joining Craigs Investment Partners, Paul worked for a number of years in banking and corporate finance in the UK, Sweden, Finland and New Zealand providing corporate advisory services to listed and unlisted clients, and most recently as a Registered Financial Adviser in the Wanaka and Queenstown area. Paul has a strong background in corporate finance and capital markets as a principal and an advisor, having been involved in a number of debt and equity capital market transactions, company acquisitions, divestitures and restructurings in the Nordic countries, Baltic States, the US and New Zealand. Paul lives in Wanaka with his wife and two school age children. Outside of work he enjoys tennis, golf, cycling and fly fishing, with varying degrees of success. Paul holds the following qualifications:  Bachelor of Commerce (Finance; Economics), University of Auckland (1986) …Paul Gardner…Queenstown Branch…Registered Financial Adviser…03-901-0173…paul.gardner@craigsip.com

Fraser Brown

Although not a Queenstown local himself, Frasers father and grandparents were all Otago born and he has maintained close links to the region since childhood. He spent 5 years in Dunedin in the 90s both at University and working, his first job as a sales rep based out of Mosgiel covering Central Otago and Southland. He also later worked for Trustbank Otago before transferring to Auckland. Fraser joined CIP in 2008 after working as an Agri Business Manager in Gisborne for the BNZ. Prior to this Fraser worked as both a Business Analyst and Business Manager in Auckland for Westpac as well as 2 years in London, working for several Investment Banks in trade support roles. Fraser was actively involved in the Gisborne community and is a past president of the Gisborne Chamber of Commerce and Rotary Club of Gisborne as well as a previous trustee of Hospice Tairawhiti. He was also a foundation member and trustee of the local Economic Development Agency in Gisborne, Activate Tairawhiti. Fraser was brought up on a sheep and beef station on the East Coast and his a strong affinity with the rural community. He is particularly interested in assisting farming families with transitioning to life beyond the farm gate and has had extensive involvement in this area. He is also focused on being a Gateway Broker to new migrants moving to the Central Otago region and assisting with their investment requirements. Outside of work Fraser loves playing golf, snowboarding, mountain biking and enjoying the outdoors in general. Fraser holds the following qualifications: Bachelor of Commerce, Otago University NZX Diploma (2010) Certificate of Authorisation AFA (2011) He is a member of or accredited with the following organisations: NZX Adviser …Fraser Brown…Queenstown Branch…Adviser…03-901-0178…fraser.brown@craigsip.com

Dave Hodgson

Dave Hodgson joined Craigs Investment Partners in October 2004. Dave’s earlier working career was in the rural sector, having worked as a livestock representative for two leading Stock and Station Agency’s. After a year spent traveling overseas with a young family, and having recognised the importance of education, Dave went to University as an adult student and completed a Commerce Degree (majoring in accounting) and a Graduate Diploma in Finance at Lincoln University. Subsequent to this, he worked as an Auditor and then as an Accountant for two well respected firms in Canterbury. Dave balances his interest in the capital markets with a passion for all things outdoors, particularly tramping, mountain biking, fishing and diving. Dave holds the following qualifications:  Certificate of Authorisation AFA (2011) NZX Diploma (2005) Graduate Diploma of Commerce (Accounting and Finance), Lincoln University (2003) Bachelor of Commerce and Management (Accounting), Lincoln University (2002) He is a member of or accredited with the following organisations: NZX Adviser …Dave Hodgson…Queenstown Branch…Adviser…03-901-0172…dave.hodgson@craigsip.com